Outlook - May to July 2009

Science Centres: Climate

In the New Zealand region, mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal to the north of the country, resulting in a weak easterly wind flow anomaly over the country during winter.

Temperatures are expected to be average or above average in all regions.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal over the north of the North Island, and near normal elsewhere. Normal soil moisture levels and normal or above normal streamflows are expected in the northern North Island while normal or below normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected in the east of both islands. Normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected elsewhere.

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In this example (left), the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown (30% and 20% respectively).
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