Backgrounder El Niño and Waikato spring climate: dry or wet? The possibility of a return to El Niño conditions later this year has been strengthened by recent developments in the tropical Pacific (see the Climate Outlook on page 3). The best indication of the effect that El Niño might have on spring rainfall can be found in the historical record of previous El Niño springs.

New Zealand Climate in March 2002 A dry, sunny start to autumn March was dry, especially in the east, and sunny almost everywhere. Many eastern sites between Bay of Plenty and Otago recorded less then 50% of their usual March rainfall. Gisborne Airport recorded 12 mm and has recorded less than this only twice in 95 years. Rainfall was above average in parts of Auckland, Buller, Nelson Lakes, the Southern Alps, and coastal Southland. Almost all New Zealand locations were sunnier than normal after a cloudy summer. It was especially sunny in Nelson and the east coast of the South Island.

New Zealand River Flows in March 2002 High stream flows in Wellington and Buller Wellington, Wairarapa, and Buller river and stream flows were above average in March. Flows were below average in the Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Marlborough, Otago, and Southland, and near average elsewhere.