Island Climate Update 61 - October 2005

26 March 2007 - 1:05pm

Science Centres: Pacific Rim

October

Monthly climate

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article
Tropical cyclone guidance for the 2005/06 season Dr Jim Salinger, Stuart Burgess and Dr Jim Renwick Figure 1: Average annual number of Tropical Cyclones, Neutral ENSO periods, Nov-May from 1970/71 to 2004/05. (Click for enlargement) The tropical cyclone season, from November – May, is likely to be near average intensity throughout much of the South Pacific, with a normal frequency of occurrence expected in most areas this season, due to the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions (i.e.

Monthly climate
Climate developments in September 2005 Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for September 2005. (Click for enlargement and detail) The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the region northeast of Papua New Guinea and towards Samoa and Niue. A large area of enhanced convection affected the northwest Pacific, extending south towards Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, and northeast to merge with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the Equator.

October
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. Number 61 – September 2005 September’s climate Large areas of enhanced convection affected the northwest Pacific, extending south towards Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands Suppressed convection existed over the region between Vanuatu and Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu and the Northern Cook Islands Above average rainfall in Niue, parts of Fiji, Tonga, and the Society Islands of French

Three-month outlook
Tropical rainfall outlook: October to December 2005 Rainfall outlook map for October to December 2005. (Click for enlargement) A large region of enhanced convection is expected from Papua New Guinea eastwards to the Solomon Islands, and Samoa. Another region of near or above average rainfall is likely from Niue east to the Austral Islands, including the Cook Islands and the Society Islands. Rainfall is expected to be near or below average over Western Kiribati and Tuvalu.

Data sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations: American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Papua New Guinea Pitcairn Island Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned. Acknowledgements This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi