Island Climate Update 48 - September 2004

26 March 2007 - 9:00am

Science Centres: Climate

September

Monthly climate

ENSO & SST

Forecast validation

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article
Pacific Dialogue on Water and Climate - Dr Marc Overmars, SOPAC Island Vulnerability The vulnerability of Small Island Countries has received increasing attention since the Barbados Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States in 1994. The particular vulnerability of islands is often described in terms of their remoteness, small size and exposure to climatic instability.

Forecast validation
Forecast validation Forecast period: June to August 2004 Enhanced convection with above average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, with average or above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati. Another region of average or above average rainfall was forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society and Tuamotu Islands, with above average rainfall in the Austral Islands.

ENSO & SST
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures The equatorial Pacific Ocean is in a weak El Niño state, however the ocean and the atmosphere are yet to be fully coupled. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has become more negative over the past month, with a 3-month (July-August) mean reaching -1.1, the first time it has been that low since the spring of 2002.

Monthly climate
Climate developments in August 2004 The SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) extended from the Solomon Islands to the region south of the Cook Islands. This included the main islands of Fiji, central and southern Tonga where rainfall was 200-400% above average.

Three-month outlook
Tropical rainfall outlook: September to November 2004 Continuing variability in the equatorial Pacific is expected to influence the Pacific rainfall for the coming three months. Even though this El Niño event is expected to be weak, the climate impacts will vary and can be extreme for some island countries. Rainfall is expected to be above average in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati.

September
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. Number 48 – September 2004 August’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the Solomon Islands to the region south of the Cook Islands; very high rainfall occurred throughout much of Fiji and Tonga. Suppressed convection occurred over Papua New Guinea with continued low rainfall in parts of Queensland, Australia. Intermittent equatorial westerly wind bursts occurred.

Data sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations: American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Papua New Guinea Pitcairn Island Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned. Acknowledgements This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi