Science Centres: Pacific Rim

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 43 – 6 April 2004

March’s climate: Tropical cyclone ‘Grace’, only the 3rd this season, formed in the Coral Sea, west of New Caledonia from 21 to 22 March. A large region of enhanced convergence and high rainfall persists west of the Date Line. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was located further north and east than usual. Well above average rainfall occurred in the Coral Sea, parts of New Caledonia, the Tuamotu Islands and Pitcairn Islands.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The March Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was –0.2. The equatorial Pacific continues in a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) near average in the equatorial Pacific.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three-month outlook: Above average rainfall is forecast for the Solomon Islands with average or above average rainfall likely in Papua New Guinea, Western Kiribati, Tonga and Niue. Suppressed convection is expected in the tropical eastern Pacific, resulting in below average rainfall over the Marquesas Islands and average or below average rainfall over Eastern Kiribati, the Society Islands and the Tuamotu Islands.

Feature article: Ocean signals after the 1997–98 El Niño.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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