Island Climate Update 40 - January 2004

26 March 2007 - 8:57am

Science Centres: Climate

January

Monthly climate

ENSO & SST

Forecast validation

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Cyclone

Feature article
Pacific Island Training Institute on Climate and Extreme Events The University of the South Pacific (USP), the East-West Center (EWC) and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) will convene a two-week Pacific Island Training Institute on Climate and Extreme Events from 15–28 June 2004 at the Suva campus of the University of the South Pacific. The Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) and the U.S.

Forecast validation
Forecast validation Forecast period: October to December 2003 Average or above average rainfall was expected in Samoa. A large area of suppressed convection in the equatorial region was expected to extend south, to affect areas west of the Date Line, with below average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati, and average or below average rainfall in New Caledonia, and Vanuatu, as well as the Marquesas Islands. Average rainfall was expected elsewhere in the region.

Cyclone
Tropical Cyclone Update ‘Heta’, the first severe tropical cyclone (category 5 – most severe) of the season, originated from a disturbance north of Fiji on 28 December. It moved to develop into a tropical cyclone just west of Atafu, the northernmost part of the Tokelau Islands on 2 January. Heta continued to track south, passing west of Samoa on 5 January, and then southeast, with sustained winds near its centre exceeding 220 km/h.

ENSO & SST
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures Pacific in a neutral ENSO state Westerly surface wind anomalies The Equatorial Pacific continues in a neutral state. Positive equatorial SSTs have eased recently, but are still higher than normal, especially in the west. The mean SOI for December was +0.9, and 0.0 for October–December. The NINO3 SST anomaly for December was about +0.6°C and NINO4 is around +0.9°C (3-month means are +0.7°C and +1.0°C, respectively).

January
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. Number 40 – 8 January 2004 December’s climate: Enhanced convection was associated with the monsoon over Indonesia, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea, which merged with the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of the equator and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) to the southeast.

Monthly climate
Climate developments in December 2003 Active SPCZ further south than usual Below average rainfall persists over much of the equatorial southwest Pacific A large region of enhanced convection was associated with the monsoon over Indonesia, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea. This extended east to merge with the ITCZ north of the equator and the SPCZ to the southeast.

Three-month outlook
Rainfall outlook for January to March 2004 Average or above average rainfall likely from the Solomon Islands east southeast to the Austral Islands Below average rainfall likely in the Marquesas Islands Near average rainfall elsewhere in the region Enhanced convection is expected in parts of the tropical Southwest Pacific resulting in average or above average rainfall from the Solomon Islands trending east to the Austral Islands, including Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands and the Society and Austral Islands. However, below average rainfall is expected for the Marquesas Islands.

Data sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations: American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Papua New Guinea Pitcairn Island Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned. Acknowledgements This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi