Island Climate Update 27 - December 2002

23 March 2007 - 1:08pm

Science Centres: Pacific Rim

December

Monthly climate

ENSO & SST

Forecast validation

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article
El Niño Impacts in the Pacific, now and for the Southern Hemisphere Summer Ashmita Gosai, Andrew Watkins, Luc Maitrepierre, and Stuart Burgess Figure 1. New Caledonia May to November 2002 rainfall compared to the 1971–2000 normal Figure 2. Tarawa, Kiribati, 2002 monthly rainfall Actual rainfall is shown by the bars. The solid line shows the normal rainfall. Figure 3.

Forecast validation
Forecast validation Forecast period: September to November 2002 The influence of the El Niño was expected to have a significant influence on rainfall anomalies, with more convergence and a tendency towards above average rainfall for Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Tokelau. Wallis and Futuna, and Pitcairn Island were also expected to receive above average or average rainfall. Below average or average rainfall was expected in a broad area from Papua New Guinea southeast to New Caledonia, across to Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands.

December
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. Number 27 – 10 December 2002 November’s Climate: The moderate El Niño episode is continuing to affect Southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and above average rainfall over much of Kiribati, and contrasting areas of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall from Queensland across to New Caledonia.

ENSO & SST
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures El Niño expected to weaken in the Autumn of 2003 Equatorial Pacific SSTs continue to warm Sea surface temperature anomalies across the Equatorial Pacific are very positive from the date line across to the South America. The NINO3 region and NINO4 regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were around +1.6°C and +1.7°C respectively in November. The September – November 2002 mean SSTs were about +1.3°C for NINO3, and +1.4°C in the NINO4 region.

Monthly climate
El Niño continues to enhance convection and rainfall over Kiribati Extremely low rainfall in New Caledonia and parts of French Polynesia The SPCZ remained near its average location about and west of the date line, with enhanced convection from the Solomon Islands across to Tuvalu, northern Vanuatu, and the sea area northwest of Fiji.

Three-month outlook
Rainfall outlook for December 2002 to February 2003 The El Niño related convection and tendency towards above average rainfall is expected to persist in equatorial countries, including Tuvalu and Tokelau Rainfall should trend below average from the Solomon Islands, southeast to the Southern Cook Islands The region of enhanced convection in the NINO3 region should continue to persist from December 2002 through February 2003, resulting in a high likelihood of above average rainfall in both Western and Eastern Kiribati. Average or above average rainfall is expected in Tuvalu and Tokelau.

Data sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations: American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Papua New Guinea Pitcairn Island Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned. Acknowledgements This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi