Island Climate Update 26 - November 2002

23 March 2007 - 1:08pm

Science Centres: Pacific Rim

November

Monthly climate

ENSO & SST

Forecast validation

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article
Higher risk of Tropical Cyclones for South Pacific countries east of the Date Line By Dr Jim Salinger, Dr Jim Renwick and Stuart Burgess For some South Pacific countries east of the date line the chances of tropical cyclone activity are higher than normal for the November 2002 – January 2003 period. The last few tropical cyclone seasons were relatively ‘quiet’, with only six occurrences during 2000/01 and five in 2001/02.

Forecast validation
Forecast validation Forecast period: August to October 2002 The influence of the El Niño was expected to have a significant influence on rainfall anomalies, with more convergence and a tendency towards above average rainfall projected for Kiribati and Tuvalu, and average to below average rainfall from the Coral Sea to New Caledonia.

ENSO & SST
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures Moderate El Niño expected to last through Summer Much of the equatorial Pacific remains warmer than normal Central Pacific SST anomalies intensified further during October, with some areas around Eatern Kiribati more than 2.0°C above average.

Monthly climate
Enhanced convection over much of the western and central Pacific Well below average rainfall from Australia across to central French Polynesia The SPCZ was near its average location about and west of the dateline, with enhanced convection between the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. This region merged with the ENSO related area of enhanced convection situated over Kiribati in the central equatorial Pacific. Episodes of equatorial westerlies, enhancing the ENSO linked convection over Kiribati, were not as frequent as in the past few months.

November
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. Number 26 – 7 November 2002 October’s Climate: The El Niño is continuing to affect southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and well above average rainfall over much of Kiribati, but contrasting areas of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall from Australia across to central French Polynesia.

Three-month outlook
Rainfall outlook for November 2002 to January 2003 Enhanced convection and above average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati Rainfall trending towards below average in many countries from Papua New Guinea across to the Austral Islands, especially New Caledonia to Niue The El Niño-related regions of enhanced convection should persist affecting Western and Eastern Kiribati during the November 2002 to January 2003 period, resulting in continued above average rainfall in that region, with above average or average rainfall likely in Wallis & Futuna, Tuvalu and Tokelau. Below averag

Data sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations: American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Papua New Guinea Pitcairn Island Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned. Acknowledgements This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi