Island Climate Update 21 - June 2002

23 March 2007 - 12:37pm

Science Centres: Pacific Rim

June

Monthly climate

ENSO & SST

Forecast validation

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article
Figure 1. Phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation from 1950 to 2000. Click to enlarge Figure 2. Trends in annual mean temperature (0.01°C) between the most recent positive and negative phase of the IPO. Click to enlarge Figure 3.

Forecast validation
Forecast validation Forecast period: March to May 2002 Rainfall was expected to be above average in Niue, and average to above average from Fiji across to Tonga, and in Western Kiribati. Below average rainfall was forecast for the region north of about 12°S from Tokelau to the Marquesas, including Eastern Kiribati. Average rainfall was expected in the other parts of the region. Rainfall was as expected for many of the forecast areas. However, it was higher than forecast in New Caledonia, Samoa and the Marquesas and Austral Islands.

ENSO & SST
ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures In the tropical Southwest Pacific, a band of much warmer than usual water at the surface (at least 1.0°C above average) extends from Kiribati south to affect the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Tuvalu. Surface waters at least 1.0°C above average also encompass the region to the south and west of Pitcairn Island. Most of the Southwest Pacific is warmer than average ( 0.5–1.0°C). Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures continued to warm through May with SSTs being 1.0°C warmer (US analysis, +1.0°C) immediately west of the date line.

June
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. Number 21 – 11 June 2002 May’s Climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was further south than average west of the date line, but further north than usual over much of the region to the east.

Monthly climate
Enhanced convection south of the Solomon Islands across to Fiji and from the Tokelaus to Pitcairn Island Below average rainfall in the Southern Cooks and Society Islands A large area of enhanced convection with areas of above average rainfall affected the region south of the Solomon Islands across Vanuatu to the north of Fiji, as the SPCZ continued to be displaced south of its mean position in that region.

Three-month outlook
Rainfall outlook for June to August 2002 Above average rainfall in equatorial latitudes from Nauru to Kiribati Average to below average rainfall in Papua New Guinea, Fiji and the Marquesas and Austral Islands Below average rainfall for New Caledonia and Samoa Mainly average rainfall in other areas In the Western Pacific, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was further south of its normal position lying just north of Vanuatu and Fiji during May. It lay further northeast than average east of the date line, lying just north of the Cook Islands and over parts of French Polynesia.

Data sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations: American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Kiribati New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Papua New Guinea Pitcairn Island Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned. Acknowledgements This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi