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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast January to March 2016

25 January 2016

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

For the January – March 2016 forecast period, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is expected to be shifted east and north of its climatological position. Areas of higher than normal convective activity associated with the SPCZ are expected in the central southeastern Pacific south and in the Intertropical Convergence Zone over and east of the international dateline.​

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.