Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

•  Strong El Niño conditions continued in November 2015.  
•  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies exceed +2°C over large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
•  El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (December 2015 – February 2016).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north and east of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

•  Below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, southern Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, the southern Cook Islands, Samoa, Fiji, Niue, Tonga, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

• Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the northern Cook Island, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati, eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas.