Island Climate Update 181 - October 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

05 October 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 181 (PDF 1.4 MB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 339 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    Strong El Niño conditions were established in September 2015.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Strong El Niño conditions were established during September 2015. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the NINO3.4 region are close to +2°C (+1.96°C), while they exceed this threshold in the NINO3 region (eastern Pacific: 90oW – 150oW), with the latest monthly value reaching +2.12°C.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast October to December 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: October to December 2015

    The dynamical models are all in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions for the October – December 2015 period.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data