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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast March to May 2015

18 March 2015

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

During the March to May 2015 period, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to be positioned close to normal in the western Pacific and south of normal in the eastern Pacific. Areas of higher than normal convective activity are expected in the root zone of the SPCZ extending towards the International Dateline. Confidence in the forecast is lowest to the east of the International Dateline.

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.