18 March 2015
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific reflect weak El Niño conditions in February 2015.
- Regional atmospheric patterns indicate neutral to weak El Niño conditions.
- Probability for El Niño during March – May 2015 is about 45%.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned south of normal in the eastern Pacific for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, the northern Cook Islands and Papua New Guinea.
- Above normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati. Near normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for eastern Kiribati, Samoa, Tokelau, Wallis & Futuna, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Austral Islands, the southern Cook Islands and the Society Islands.
- Above normal SSTs are forecast for eastern and western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Tokelau and Tuvalu.
