Introduction
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is still in a neutral ENSO state, but if present warming rates continue El Nino should be reached by austral spring.
Island Climate Update 142 - July 2012
16 July 2012
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Download ICU 142 as a PDF (315 kB)
El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Tropical Pacific conditions are still in the neutral range, however, ocean surface warming has intensified along the equator east of the Dateline towards the South American coast. The latest weekly Nino3.4 index indicates central-western equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures are above normal (+ 0.6).
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) forecast July to September 2012
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: July to September 2012
Neutral ENSO conditions presently exist in the tropical Pacific, but El Niño is likely by the end of winter if the present warming rates continue.
Data Sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data