Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

• The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral ENSO state, and is forecast to remain so over the forecast period, with indications of possible transition towards El Niño in August.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone is forecast to be slightly southwest of normal for the next three months.
• Relative to past months, the SPCZ is expected to move northward under ENSO neutral conditions.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below-normal rainfall is forecast fo Tuvalu, Samoa, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands and the Society Islands and Wallis & Futuna.
• Near-normal rainfall is expected for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, the Southern Cook Islands, the Tuamotu Archipelago, the Marquesas, the Austral Islands and Pitcairn.
• Normal or above-normal rainfall is forecast for Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tonga, Niue and Papua New Guinea.
• The sea surface temperature anomalies associated with La Niña are muted relative to prior months, and the METPI guidance indicated warm anomalies will develop along the Equator east of the Dateline.