Introduction
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral ENSO state, and is forecast to remain so over the forecast period, with indications of possible transition towards El Niño in August.
Island Climate Update 141 - June 2012
16 July 2012
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Download ICU 141 as a PDF (321 kB)
El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Tropical Pacific conditions are in the neutral range, after the end of the 2011/12 La Niña event. The SOI value for May (and the 3 month mean) was –0.3 standard deviations.
South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) forecast: June to August 2012
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: June to August 2012
The Pacific is currently in an ENSO–neutral state and is forecast to remain so, or transition towards El Niño conditions, over the next three months.
Data Sources
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data