An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO diagnostics indicate La Niña conditions exist in the EquatorialPacific Ocean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest
La Nina will continue to persist at least moderate strength through summer.
Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 -12 season
The tropical Pacific is currently in a weak to moderate LaNiña
Below normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is likely formost islands west of the International Date Line in the southwest Pacific during the November 2011 – April 2012 season, with normal or slightly elevated activity near the Gulf of Carpentaria and North Queensland, particularly late in the season.
A La Niña pattern exists in the ensemble of globalclimate forecasts.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
