Science Centres: Pacific Rim

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 103 – April 2009

March’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced southwest of its normal position and was very active.
• Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru southeast to Tuvalu.
• Mostly well above normal rainfall for French Polynesia and New Caledonia.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts

• La Niña-like conditions exist in the tropical Pacific, but have weakened relative to previous months. Most climate models project ENSO neutral conditions for autumn and winter 2009.
• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, and the Northern Cook Islands.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands, and Papua New Guinea.
• SST anomalies are expected to weaken in the region. Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast for the southwestern half of the southwest Pacific region. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for the northeast half of the southwest Pacific.

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